Expect the Unexpected
Words really matter in emergency services and using action words too often, too early and too easily can have un-intended results as people apply context. There are many which need to be reined in but let’s start with just one for now — “Unprecedented.” It is a word we now hear and use with greater frequency, especially when discussing emergencies and disasters: an “unprecedented” cyberattack, an “unprecedented” severe weather event, “unprecedented” snowfall, etc. But are we describing these events accurately? Are we too quick to apply the hype associated with this word because we want it to immediately resonate with the audience? Consider this very carefully if you are the voice of an incident or event.
The Cambridge Dictionary (dictionary.cambridge.org) defines unprecedented as, “Never having happened or existed in the past.” Using that definition, is anything truly unprecedented? When we refer to an event thusly, are we saying the event has never happened before, or are we really saying that such an event has simply never happened to us? Please let that sink in.
In May, 2021 a ransomware attack resulted in the shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline and affected fuel supplies from Texas and Louisiana all the way up the Eastern Seaboard. While the attack prompted emergency declarations in 17 states, it was not mentioned that ransomware has been around since the late 1980’s, and even goes back to infected floppy discs that were distributed at a World Health Organization conference. The result was disruption to many things and people on a large and global scale.
A freight train transporting hazardous materials derails near a small town. Tank cars are breached. Some of the chemical’s spill onto the ground, some are released into the air, and some ignite. A plume of toxic smoke can be seen for miles. Evacuation orders were issued for the town’s inhabitants, and media attention from all over the world focuses on the event. You are likely reading this thinking “I know this one, it is East Palestine, Ohio in 2023, right!” Sorry, it was Tamaroa Illinois 20 years earlier in 2003. Guess what term was used for each event.
Unprecedented . . . ?
Two more talking points and we will wrap this up. Prior to 2005, major hurricanes had made landfall along America’s Gulf Coast many times. Storms like Camille (1969 Category 5 killer), Andrew (1992, Category 3), Opal (1995, Category 4), Ivan (2004, Category 4), and Dennis (2005, Category 4) and Katrina (2005, Category 3 and a killer plus mass property damage). Fast forward to 2024 and Helene, a killer and mass property damage. Hurricane data since 1851 shows over 310 hurricane level storms have impacted the gulf or eastern seaboard states. In this same period, there were 34 years with no storms including most recently of 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2015 (source – NOAA, Hurricane Landfalls)
The 2023 wildfires on the Hawaiian island of Maui, while certainly unprecedented in terms of lives lost at 102, property damaged, cultural icons destroyed, and communities forever altered, the event itself – a wildfire crossing into a developed and populated area – is not. Globally, since 1990 there have been 11 wildfires with a greater loss of life than occurred in Maui. In the United States, 4 wildfires of record had a greater loss of life at 282, 418, 453 & 1,152 (source – US Forest Service). In 2018 the Camp Fire in Paradise California., killed 86 people and destroyed much of the town. Even here in Missouri, a state known more for severe weather events and flooding than as wildfires, much of the small town of Wooldridge was destroyed when, in October of 2022. It started as a natural cover fire fueled by drought and strong winds started in a farm field and spread into the town. While no lives were lost, 23 buildings (roughly half the town) were either damaged or destroyed. While this was a first in recent history for Missouri, this type of wildfire was not unprecedented having occurred in several similar instances in western states.

We are a connected world as never before. News is delivered in real time to our mobile smart devices, which are almost never beyond arm’s reach. Moreso, many of us make it our business to know what our professional colleagues are doing. We watch for content about successes, lessons learned, and incidents managed. Now, add to all that the emphasis within the emergency services professions on information and intelligence sharing. Going back to the definition in the opening paragraphs, is anything truly “unprecedented?”
It is my contention that, when someone says their community has experienced an “unprecedented” event, the speaker does not mean such an event has never happened – it just hasn’t happened there, to them.
This level of connectivity, level of knowledge and information sharing places upon us the responsibility to be aware of what has happened elsewhere, to recognize commonalities within our own organizations (both public and private sector), and to take those steps necessary to prevent – or at least mitigate – a similar event. Gone, long gone, are the days when we had to watch the evening news to find out about the day’s events. Gone are the days of reading about yesterday’s events in today’s newspaper, and gone are the days when news stories from around the world had to be evaluated, prioritized, and edited sufficiently to fit into a 30-minute newscast. We have the ability to learn about everything, and to do so in real time. Simply because it (whatever “it” is) has never happened to us does not mean it has not happened to someone else, somewhere else, nor does it necessarily mean we are ignorant of that occurrence.
As emergency services professionals it is not our job to hope it never happens to us. Nor is it our job to convince ourselves that it is more likely to happen in another location, or to expect it not to be as bad as it clearly has been elsewhere. We have a responsibility to the people who count on us to be as prepared as possible; to ensure the personnel, equipment, and other resources within our purview are in a state of readiness. To not rationalize away uncomfortable (or unpopular) facts and circumstances, and to act in the best interests of the communities we serve.